Katalog GES



Forecasting the Interindustry Development of the German Economy: The Model I FORGE

1st Person: Lutz, Christian
Additional Persons: Meyer, Bernd; Distelkamp, Martin; Wolter, Marc Ingo
Type of Publication: Paper
Language: English
Published: Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (GWS) 2003
Series: GWS Discussion Paper
Online: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/94410/1/gws-paper03-2.pdf
id
oai_econstor.eu_10419-94410
recordtype
econstor
institution
MPG
collection
ECONSTOR
title
Forecasting the Interindustry Development of the German Economy: The Model I FORGE
spellingShingle
Forecasting the Interindustry Development of the German Economy: The Model I FORGE
Lutz, Christian
GWS Discussion Paper
title_short
Forecasting the Interindustry Development of the German Economy: The Model I FORGE
title_full
Forecasting the Interindustry Development of the German Economy: The Model I FORGE
title_fullStr
Forecasting the Interindustry Development of the German Economy: The Model I FORGE
title_full_unstemmed
Forecasting the Interindustry Development of the German Economy: The Model I FORGE
title_sort
Forecasting the Interindustry Development of the German Economy: The Model I FORGE
format
electronic Article
format_phy_str_mv
Paper
publisher
Gesellschaft für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung (GWS)
publishDate
2003
language
English
author
Lutz, Christian
author2
Meyer, Bernd
Distelkamp, Martin
Wolter, Marc Ingo
author2Str
Meyer, Bernd
Distelkamp, Martin
Wolter, Marc Ingo
description
INFORGE is a German interindustry forecasting model, that is based on the INFORUM philosophy. It has been used in a wide range of applications in the last years and is updated annually. The structure of the model is explained in detail. It contains an input-output module, an SNA and financial module and depicts the labour market in great detail. As almost all variables are endogenous to the model, only a few policy variables have to be set exogenously. Probable assumptions for the next years are discussed, that form a base scenario. Results of the base simulation until 2015 show, that Germany will reach again historical annual growth rates of GDP of about 2% after overcoming the current crisis. Trade will grow much faster throughout the simulation period. Public consumption is restricted due to the European stability pact. Construction will not recover, as population forecasts show a decline after 2010. Problems on the labour market diminish in the long run because of demographic change. Employment in manufacturing, agriculture and mining will decline in favour of services. But simulation results show that this shift is not caused by changes in the structure of production but due to higher productivity growth in manufacturing. In contrast to other countries, German manufacturers will keep their share in production.
url
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/94410/1/gws-paper03-2.pdf
series
GWS Discussion Paper
seriesStr
GWS Discussion Paper
GWS Discussion Paper
series2
GWS Discussion Paper
series2_facet
GWS Discussion Paper
up_date
2019-08-23T02:50:12.925Z
_version_
1642624329808085000

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