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Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved?

1st Person: Heilemann, Ullrich
Additional Persons: Stekler, H. O.
Type of Publication: Paper
Language: English
Published: Univ., SFB 475 2003
Series: Technical Report
Keywords: Konjunkturprognose
Prognoseverfahren
Deutschland
Economic forecast
Forecasting model
Germany
Online: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/49330/1/373265638.pdf
id
oai_econstor.eu_10419-49330
recordtype
econstor
institution
MPG
collection
ECONSTOR
title
Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved?
spellingShingle
Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved?
Konjunkturprognose
Prognoseverfahren
Deutschland
Economic forecast
Forecasting model
Germany
Heilemann, Ullrich
Technical Report
title_short
Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved?
title_full
Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved?
title_fullStr
Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved?
title_full_unstemmed
Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved?
title_sort
Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved?
format
electronic Article
format_phy_str_mv
Paper
publisher
Univ., SFB 475
publishDate
2003
language
English
topic
Konjunkturprognose
Prognoseverfahren
Deutschland
Economic forecast
Forecasting model
Germany
topic_facet
Economic forecast
Forecasting model
Germany
author
Heilemann, Ullrich
author2
Stekler, H. O.
author2Str
Stekler, H. O.
description
The major focus of this paper is to determine whether the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts has improved over time. We examine 1-year-ahead forecasts of real GDP and inflation for 1967 to 2001 made by three major German forecasting groups and the OECD. We examine the accuracy of the forecasts over the entire period and in three sub-periods. We conclude that, with some exceptions, the errors of the German forecasters were similar to those of their US and UK counterparts. While the absolute size of the forecast errors has declined, this is not the case for relative accuracy. A benchmark comparison of these predictions with the ex post forecasts of a macroeconometric model indicates that the quality of the growth forecasts can be improved but that the expected increase in accuracy may not be substantial.
url
https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/49330/1/373265638.pdf
series
Technical Report
seriesStr
Technical Report
Technical Report
series2
Technical Report
series2_facet
Technical Report
up_date
2019-04-22T02:50:15.379Z
_version_
1631480885029109761

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