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An Evaluation of Some Ultra-Long-Range Weather Predictions

Predictions of wet and dry days made with an ultra-long-range weather prediction method for the Los Angeles, St. Louis, and Boston regions for November 1977–April 1978 are compared with the actual weather. The method predicted, on average, 61% of the wet and dry days correctly. A... Full description

1st Person: Hindman, Edward E.
Additional Persons: Spear, James verfasserin
Source: in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society : BAMS Vol. 61, No. 4 (1980), p. 321-328
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Type of Publication: Article
Language: English
Published: 1980
Keywords: research-article
Online: Volltext
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520 |a Predictions of wet and dry days made with an ultra-long-range weather prediction method for the Los Angeles, St. Louis, and Boston regions for November 1977–April 1978 are compared with the actual weather. The method predicted, on average, 61% of the wet and dry days correctly. A climatologically based random prediction method is developed and is shown to predict for the same data set, on average, 57% of the wet and dry days correctly. The monthly averages of the daily predictions in each category are highly correlated for the two methods. The ultra-long-range method is shown to predict with about the same skill as the random method for the period investigated. 
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952 |d 61  |j 1980  |e 4  |h 321-328 

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