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Potential Growth in Emerging Asia

Using three distinct approaches-statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model- this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993-2013. The main findings include: (i) both... Full description

1st Person: Anand, Rahul
Additional Persons: Cheng, Kevin C.; Rehman, Sidra; Zhang, Longmei
Type of Publication: Book
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2014, 2014
Series: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper
Keywords: China, People's Republic of
India
Growth Accounting
Potential Growth
Growth Rate
Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
Emerging Asia
TFP
Online: Volltext
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653 |a Growth Rate 
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700 1 |a Rehman, Sidra 
700 1 |a Zhang, Longmei 
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082 0 |a 330 
520 |a Using three distinct approaches-statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model- this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993-2013. The main findings include: (i) both China and India have recently exhibited a slowdown in potential growth, largely reflecting a decline of total factor productivity (TFP) growth; (ii) by contrast, trend growth for the five ASEAN countries has been rather stable and might even have increased marginally, with the notable exception of Vietnam;(iii) over the longer term, demographic factors will be much more supportive in India and some ASEAN economies than in China, where working-age population should start shrinking, with the overall dependency ratio climbing by the end of this decade. Improving or sustaining potential growth calls for broad structural reforms 

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