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Do Forecasters Believe in Okun's Law? An Assessment of Unemployment and Output Forecasts

This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent with Okun's Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun coefficient-the responsiveness of unemployment to growth-from... Full description

1st Person: Ball, Laurence M.
Additional Persons: Jalles, João Tovar; Loungani, Prakash
Type of Publication: Book
Published: Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2014, 2014
Series: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper
Keywords: Germany
Australia
United States
Italy
Japan
Forecast Assessment
Forecasting and Simulation
Forecast Revisions
Forecasting and Other Model Applications
General
Employment
Online: Volltext
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